Unforeseen Contingencies

July 4, 1776 is the day Americans said to Britain, "We don't need or want your government.  We can be our own authority, and follow fundamental truths and principles, instead of your arbitrary, unprincipled diktats.  Now shove off!"  Americans then had to kill a bunch of Brits to make it stick.

In that spirit of joyous defiance, and in lieu of our usual essays on the importance of the Declaration of Independence and this holiday, "we" at Unforeseen Contingencies will attempt to violate arbitrary and noxious edicts from European despots.  This should not be too difficult; the E.U. and the U.K. have all sorts of stupid rules about what things one must not say, and apparently they think these should apply to the worldwide web globally.  So let's see what we can do.  Here are some statements we think worth considering that (we hope) violate noxious edicts.

1. The European Union is a dictatorial and illegitimate regime and should be disbanded immediately, taking the Euro with it.  

2. The Starmer government in the U.K. is a band of criminals; he and his ministers should be arrested and prosecuted for protecting Muslim rioters and rapists, and for persecuting people who protest transgenderism, abortion, and pretty much anything else that people have been arrested for protesting in the U.K.

3.The World Health Organization is a criminal enterprise.  It should be abolished and Director-General Tedros should face a Nuremburg-style tribunal for his role in advancing the Covid lockdowns and related crimes.  These are capital offenses and if convicted he should face capital punishment.

I think but am not certain we are breaking European "laws" here, but all we've done is express political opinion (#1) and argue that there have been criminal acts that should be prosecuted (#2 and #3), so just in case, let's continue.

4. Islamism should be illegal.  Islamic government and sharia law are tyrannical and incompatible with advanced civilization.

5. It might not be true of all Islam, but current mainstream Sunni and Shia Islam are pernicious, noisome and ridiculous beliefs.

6. Climate change, as promoted by the IPCC, is a hoax.

There's a nice half dozen statements; surely something among them would offend U.K. police  and get me a visit, were I to post them in that formerly great land.  And I imagine I've advertently violated one E.U. regulation or other.  I certainly hope so, and hope someone in the U.K. and E.U. stumble across them today.

The United States of America were founded on the principle "that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights," and that governments exist only to protect these.  If governments fail in that and become destructive of these rights, then they should be abolished and replaced.  This is a fundamental principle, applicable to all times, people, and places, and the American Revolution first instantiated it.  Every human being who loves liberty and abhors tyranny should celebrate this 249th anniversary today.

Here is an excellent short piece by the eminent historian Wilfred McClay on the meaning and origins of the ideas in the Declaration of Independence.

Update 6 July 2025: Here's another short piece from Lloyd Billingsley on American independence from the U.N. and its ilk.  Very good!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 15:26 0 comments

Three cheers for President Trump, the USAF, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the IDF!  Thanks to them, Iran no longer has a nuclear program.  This is one of the happiest developments in international affairs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and a foreign policy triumph for America and Israel.  The neutering of Iran's military establishment and destruction of their atomic bomb program is one of the most promising advances for peace in a long time.

Some pro-Iran weirdos, such as the silly commentator Tucker Carlson, have tried to argue there is no evidence Iran had a nuclear weapons program, and that Iran was simply trying to develop civilian nuclear power.  It's impossible to take such arguments seriously.  First, Iran could simply have bought reactors, say, from Russia.  Second, if Iran simply had been developing civilian energy, there would have been no need to bury its programs in underground bunkers and block the IAEA from observing.  Third, even the Iranians admit they enriched uranium to at least 60%.  Power reactors require enrichment to 3-4%, 5% tops.  Only bombs require the highly enriched uranium Iran was developing.  

Iran has been the leading state sponsor of terrorism, arming and funding Hezbollah, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, the Polisario Front in Morocco,  Muqtada Al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, and many others.  Iran is behind numerous terror attacks, such as bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina in 1992 and 1994 bombing of the Buenos Aires Jewish Center, the October 7 massacres in Israel, numerous attacks on American military personnel, and attempted assassinations in the United States, including a plot against President Trump.  There is no reason why such a regime should be tolerated.  The destruction of the Iranian military leadership was warranted and justified, and so was destroying their atomic weapons program.

The bombing of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan was certainly justified by libertarian principles.  A homicidal theocracy that exports murder around the world must not have nuclear weapons, and it is perfectly fine to bomb their program, and them, to oblivion.  This is particularly so since they were offered the opportunity to give it up peacefully, and instead adopt trade with the civilized, developed world to mutual benefit.  Since they refused, they have been crushed, justifiably.

It is heartening to finally see a Western leader or two stand up for civilization.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 16:52 0 comments

President Donald Trump has told Iran's "Supreme Leader" Khamenei that he must "unconditionally surrender."  Good.  The civilized world ought not tolerate savages and dictators who threaten freedom and peace of the rest of the world.  The Iranian government, a pack of belligerent religious loons on a quest for nuclear bombs, needs to be put down.  If Iran doesn't surrender, it's time for the USAF to drop some GBU-57 bombs on Fordow.

Powerline Blog and Ace of Spades HQ have included in their coverage of these events the outrage of the isolationist (and increasingly anti-Semitic) wing of Trump's supporters, such as Tucker Carlson. Here's an example from Ace at AosHQ, and here's a piece with a brief mention from John Hinderaker of Powerline.   

I think Donald Trump has a remarkable characteristic: to a very unusual degree, he seems to be a sort of mirror in which people project their imaginations.  While mostly we see this with his detractors on the left, certainly the isolationists imagined Trump was one of them.  A number of Tucker Carlson fans have told me so.  They also have told me that no one who cares about America should give a flip about Israel, about October 7, about Iran having nuclear weapons, about anything Russia does to Ukraine or Europe, or anything else abroad.  And any of us who do care are "neocon warmongers."

I'm not a neocon or a warmonger, it's simply obvious that liberty is essential and all these things the isolationists say we should ignore are very serious threats to liberty.  It's also hard to understand how anyone who pays attention could think Trump is an isolationist who thinks these things.  He has always emphasized that his first loyalty is to America, but also he understands that America is the leader of  world.  Trump '45 was certainly not anti-Israel; he moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, a thing to which other presidents had paid lip service.  Trump reversed Obama's policy and gave deadly weapons such as Javelin missiles to Ukraine to kill Russians.  Trump authorized attacks in Syria that killed at least 200 Russian soldiers of the Wagner Group and also destroyed at least 25% of Syria's combat aircraft.  In Iran, IRGC Gen. Soleimani was blown to pieces at Trump's order.  And Trump changed the rules of engagement established by Obama, allowing the U.S. military to destroy Daesh (ISIS).

But with Trump, people seem not to pay attention.  Instead, they seem to see what they want to see.  Apparently Khamenei was not immune, and now he and his regime have fallen through the looking glass, and into the fires of hell.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 23:09 0 comments

Happy birthday to: the American flag, the U.S. Army, and President Trump!  It's a great time to celebrate America.  

I won't write a long essay on this, but America is the reason ideologies like divine right of kings, totalitarianism, and socialism do not dominate the world.  And while American might, such as the U.S. Army, has been important, it is primarily America's ideals and America's incredible entrepreneurial and productive powers that have done this.  Which ideals?  America enshrined individual natural rights as the centerpiece of government, and made the commercial republic, where people pursue their own lives and well-being, not the visions of a ruler, as the fundamental principle of society.

Despite all the turmoil in the world today, the world's future is potentially very bright.  The world needs simply to implement the America ideals.

Happy Flag Day!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 11:11 2 comments

The Israeli Air Force has just bombed nuclear targets in Iran.  There are rumors they also hit key figures in the Iranian nuclear program and the regime.  This is great news!  "We" at Unforeseen Contingencies  believe Islamist dictators are always fair game, and if there is a threat they'll acquire nuclear weapons, Whacking them becomes an imperative.

Benjamin Netanyahu just gave an address on the bombing.  It is excellent, morally and strategically sound.  Video is available on this ynetnews.com article.

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 19:47 0 comments

 On December 30, 2023, the Unforeseen Contingencies Prognostication Desk issued its annual predictions for the coming year.  How did I...er...we...er they do?

BRILLIANTLY! as it turns out... Here's the predictions and scoring.

1. Israel will conquer all of Gaza and destroy Hamas.  Certainly Israel conquered Gaza.  Did they destroy Hamas?  All of Hamas' leaders have been killed, happily, but Hamas still exists... and seemingly is going to survive, because of the unfortunate and misguided ceasefire deal.  Count this as a 50% hit for 1/2 point. +0.5

2. Donald Trump will receive the Republican nomination for President and will be on the ballot in all fifty states.  Hit!  Despite the best efforts of the Democrats to destroy democratic voting.  The failed assassination and Trump's defiant response just before the Republican Convention did more to unite the party, and America, than I could have imagined.  +1

3. The Democrats will sweep the 2024 elections, taking Presidency, House, and Senate.  Miss!  Thank Heaven!  I overestimated the power of the cheat. +0

4. Massive fraud in the 2024 elections.  This one is hard to score.  There's evidence that fraud existed at local and regional levels... Sen. Slotkin probably lost in the Michigan Senate race, and there was obvious skullduggery in PA, MN, and WI.  Happily, the replacement of Ronna McRomney as head of the RNC allowed to a serious get-out-the-vote effort.  Another 50% hit. +0.5

5. Ukraine will not be conquered by Russia.  The war will continue up through the end of 2024.  Hit.  Prediction for 2025 is the same. +1

6. Joe Biden will be the Democrat nominee for President.  Wrong!  This is actually a very interesting story, though.  It was obvious during the 2020 campaign that he was in decline, with his incoherent rambling about hairy legs and Cornpop, dog-faced pony soldiers, and challenging "Fats" to a pushup contest.  He clearly declined sharply over his tenure in office, and everyone could see it.  It was obvious he was not in charge, but as a figurehead he sufficed while others ran the executive branch behind the scenes.  He was a façade for the actual decision makers, and would have sufficed as such for another four years.  But his disastrous, senile performance in the debate with Mr. Trump doomed him.  (Why was he allowed to debate?  That is an interesting mystery.)  After the debate Biden suddenly vanished ("Covid") and then withdrew from the election, announcing on X and issuing a written statement signed with a hand that was rather unlike his usual signature.  As the Democrats floundered over что делать, Biden issued another proclamation endorsing Kamala Harris.  What seems to have happened is that the Democrat establishment -- Obama, Pelosi, and Schumer, among others -- pressured Biden to withdraw.  The Bidens capitulated, but in retaliation publicly boosted the moronic Harris, who Obama opposed.  The Harris bandwagon started, and eventually even Obama climbed on.  Defeat followed. +0

7. Israel goes to war with Hezbollah (and wins).  Hit.  The only disappointment is that Rep. Tlaib wasn't carrying her pager. +1

8. Donald Trump wins.  Hit!  It pays to cover your bases!  No riots (yet) but the war with the bureaucracy is underway.  So far Trump i.e. America ahead. +1

9. Whitmer for President. I was so wrong and am so relieved.  May this never happen. +0

10. The discovery of extraterrestrial life will be officially announced.  Not yet.  It's coming. +0

The Unforeseen Contingencies Prediction Desk scored 5/10, for 50%.  Not bad!

And so far, one of our predictions for 2025 has come to pass, and the rest are looking pretty good!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 20:22 2 comments

Or your money back.

Unforeseen Contingencies scored 60% on "our" predictions for 2025 (so far, there's still a few hours left, and Prediction #10 is still looking good to us).

The new year offers us the opportunity to improve on this score.  Of course, things are quite chaotic, making this a difficult task.  But the entire staff of our highly professional, scientifically trained forecasting desk assures me they have are up to the challenge.  So without further ado, let's begin.

1. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson will remain Speaker for the immediate future, and Donald Trump will be confirmed as winner of the 2024 presidential election.  Weirdly, if we have this one wrong, there probably will not be a Speaker by January 20, in which case Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa will become Acting President. 

President Trump and his DOGE will go to war against the federal administrative bureaucracy.  Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will lead the charge, but lesser known figures such as James Sherk will play crucial roles.  So our prediction:

2. In 2025 the federal workforce will shrink by 10%. I don't think that's nearly enough, but Rome wasn't built in a day, nor dismantled in a year.  Supposedly the current federal "work" force is 3 million.  Demands that bureaucrats actually begin showing up at the office will start the process of shrinking 

 3. China will not invade Taiwan.  This is a tricky one.  China's position weakens over time.  Their economy is weak, their demographic problem grows, and neither is going to be reversed under Xi.  And while China gets progressively weaker, their best window of opportunity is closing.  The leftist Democrat administration is about to leave office.  The progressive/left are utterly incapable of offering serious opposition because of their addled understanding of how the world works and their moral incompetence. If China is to invade Taiwan, sooner is better for them than later, but Xi's internal problems and the difficulty of dealing with an unsympathetic American president will dissuade him from war in 2025.

4. Donald Trump will not impose tariffs on the E.U.  This means that the E.U. will be increasing its imports of American natural gas.  This is bad news for Putin.

5. Ukraine and Russia will still be at war at the end of 2025.  The Russian economy is in decline.  Russia is consuming its reserves.  The Ukrainians won't capitulate.  Putin needs to extricate himself while appearing a winner, but there's no easy way to do this.  

6. Substantial domestic chaos in the United States as the Trump administration cracks down on illegal immigrants, federal bureaucrats, and those who flout the law, especially state  & local officials and universities.  I expect riots matching the George Floyd riots of 2020, as well as violations of federal law by state and local officials.  How to score a hit?  Expect riots that shut down at least three major cities at once, and the high profile arrest by federal agents of at least one mayor or state official for harboring illegals.

7. Israel will undertake a massive attack on Iran, most likely on the Iranian nuclear facilities.  For a hit, the attack must be the bigger than any previous one.

8. The American economy will show a 3% growth rate by the end of 2025 as Trump curtails regulation.  This one is risky because of the federal government's shaky fiscal position and the enormous bank reserves that the Fed is paying interest on.  However, Trump 45 and now Milei have shown that with cuts in regulation, entrepreneurs are turned loose to create wealth.

9. There will be a serious attempt on President Trump's life.  It will fail.  It will look very much like an attempt organized by elements from within the federal government, but there will be no proof.  Prediction 9 is a corollary of Prediction 2.  I expect massive opposition from federal officials as they face the prospect of having their unchecked power stripped away.

10.  The existence of extraterrestrial life will be confirmed.  I'm surprised this hasn't already happened.

11. Wild card extra credit prediction: CEO and Chief Blogger Charles N. Steele will complete the Woodstock 100 Mile Race in September.  Bet on it!

// posted by Charles N. Steele @ 14:29 4 comments